Tournament Page (with links to match reports, on demand video, photo galleries and more: Link
At the midpoint of the 2023 NACHC Women’s Championships no team has been mathematically qualified or eliminated from the gold medal match. That said, the math definitely favors the undefeated hosts, Greenland and 2nd place, Canada, to finish 1-2 and to play for a World Championship berth this Sunday.
Here’s a review of each team’s performance and what they need to do to qualify for the gold match.
Current Standings after match day 3
Greenland: Greenland, so far, has dominated the competition with three convincing wins over Canada (30-19), Cuba (25-19) and the U.S. (27-12). While it’s mathematically possible they won’t take first or even 2nd place the scenario for that happening is pretty unlikely as it would involve a 3 way tie with Canada and Mexico in the final standings and Greenland losing by 16 goals in their final match vs Mexico.
Canada: Canada’s path to a 2nd place finish is also straightforward, but not nearly as guaranteed. Canada started the tournament on a down note with a heavy, 30-19 loss to Greenland, but they bounced back with relatively easy wins over the U.S. (26-11) and Mexico (32-25). With just 1 match remaining against winless Cuba it would seem they are on a path to qualification. If they beat Cuba they will be in a good position to finish 2nd, but it won’t be guaranteed as there is a scenario where Mexico could pass them on goal differential. And, even if they lose to Cuba they could still qualify with a 6 goal loss as they currently have a favorable goal differential advantage over Mexico and Cuba if those 3 teams were to tie in the final standings.
Mexico: Mexico started the tournament with a bang. Trailing 12-10 at the half against traditional, regional power Cuba, they exploded for 22 goals in the 2nd half for a huge 32-26 comeback win. This big win, however, was followed up with a major setback in the form of 32-25 loss vs Canada yesterday. And, with the 7 goal loss they can’t win a 3 way mini table should Cuba beat Canada on Friday as they are stuck on -1 goal differential. Instead, their path to qualification is to first take care of business against the winless U.S. on Friday and then pull off an upset vs Greenland on Saturday.
The requirement for that upset will depend on the outcome of the Canada – Cuba match, also to be played on Friday. If Cuba beats Canada, a draw vs Greenland would suffice. However, if Canada beats Cuba, Mexico would need to beat Greenland by 4 goals to pass Canada in three way mini table of Greenland, Canada and Mexico
Cuba: Cuba is winless and has lost both of their matches vs Mexico (32-26) and Greenland (25-19) by 6 goals. However, Cuba has also played extremely well at times and we’re leading at the half against both Greenland and Mexico before falling to second half comebacks. So, if they can put two halves together in the same match they could beat Canada. And, if they can beat Canada by 7 goals on Friday and then beat the U.S. on Saturday they could sneak into 2nd place. This is because if Mexico were to lose against Greenland on Saturday, Canada, Cuba and Mexico would finish level on points and a 7 goal win would put Cuba at the top of a 3 way mini-table.
USA: The U.S. has lost both of their matches by double digits, but is still in mathematically. If they were to beat both Mexico and Cuba, they could theoretically finish in a 3 way tie for 2nd with Canada and Mexico. That said, the U.S. is clearly in a rebuilding mode and a more realistic expectation is to gain experience on the international stage in their last two matches.
Mini Table (Canada – Mexico – Cuba)
Mini-Table (Greenland – Canada – Mexico)
